2024 NFL Forecast
Elo ratings, projected win-loss records, and playoffs odds for all 32 NFL teams.
Updated January 27, 2025.
Welcome to the landing page for my 2024 NFL forecast! This page contains the latest full season forecast for the 2024 NFL season and game predictions for the upcoming week.
All underlying data for this model comes from Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Table of Contents
PLAYOFFS FORECAST
The table below shows playoff probabilities for all 14 teams that made this postseason this year.
UPCOMING GAMES
Below are the predicted win probabilities and point spreads for all the playoff games from Wild Card Weekend.
HOW DOES THE MODEL WORK?
First, the model generates Elo ratings for all 32 NFL teams based on game results and margin of victory. The Elo ratings are then used to generate win probabilities and point spreads, which are used to run 20,000 simulations of the remaining 2024 NFL schedule. The results from these simulations are used to calculate projected win-loss records and playoff odds for each team.
The model’s only input is game results—specifically, who won and by how much. It does not immediately take into account roster changes such as trades, injuries, or other player absences.