2024-25 NBA Forecast
Elo Ratings, Regular Season Projections, and Playoff Probabilities
Latest forecast refresh: June 20, 2025
🗓️ What’s new?
June 23, 2025
That’s a wrap on the 2024–25 NBA season, and with it, the final update from this forecast.
Overall, I think the model held up well throughout the Playoffs. I’ll be doing a deeper dive in the offseason with the goal of improving it for next year.
In the meantime, here are a few quick highlights:
The model consistently had the Oklahoma City Thunder—the eventual champions—as the most likely team to win the title. The only exception came after the Pacers took a 2–1 lead in the Finals, when the model briefly gave Indiana a 54 percent chance to win it all.
The team favored by the model at the start of each series went on to win 12 of the 15 matchups. That includes a 7-for-8 record in Round 1, 2-for-4 in Round 2, 2-for-2 in the Conference Finals, and 1-for-1 in the Finals.
The model identified Pacers–Thunder as the most likely Finals matchup as early as May 7, after Indiana took a 2–0 lead over Cleveland and Boston dropped Game 1 to New York.
Welcome to the landing page for my 2024-25 NBA forecast!
Here you’ll find the latest Elo ratings, regular season projections, playoff probabilities, and game-by-game predictions for the 2024-25 NBA season.
I’ll aim to update this page daily throughout the year.
All underlying data comes from Basketball-Reference.com.
Use the Table of Contents below to navigate:
Table of Contents
2024-25 NBA Playoffs Forecast
Playoff probabilities for all postseason teams, based on 20,000 simulations of the 2025 NBA Playoffs.
NBA Finals Forecast
Who will win? How many games will the series last?
Upcoming Games
Point spreads and win probabilities for upcoming games. Estimates are based on game results only. They do not take into account injuries or roster changes.
