🏈 2025 NFL Forecast

Elo ratings, projected win-loss records, playoffs odds, and some other fun projections for the 2025 NFL season.

Latest forecast refresh: September 23, 2025

Welcome to my 2025 NFL forecast!

Here you’ll find the latest Elo ratings, win–loss projections, playoff probabilities, and game-by-game predictions for the season.

I’ll be updating this page every Tuesday morning after Monday Night Football, so you’ll always have the most up-to-date forecasts.

For the best experience, use a web browser (recommended) or the Substack app. (The email version won’t refresh 🤪). That way, you can also sort and filter the interactive tables at the bottom.

All of the underlying data powering the model comes from Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Use the Table of Contents below to jump to what you’re looking for:

Table of Contents

• Full Forecast

• Upcoming Games

• Super Bowl Matchups

• Interactive Data Visualizations

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Full Forecast

Team records, Elo ratings, regular season projections, and playoff probabilities — all in one table.

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Upcoming Games

Model projections for this week’s matchups: favorites, point spreads, and win probabilities.

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Super Bowl Forecast

According to model’s 40,000 simulations, here are the ten most likely Super Bowl matchups — and the probability of each.

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Interactive Data Visualizations

These tables contain the same information as the ones above, but they were made in Datawrapper instead of R, so they’re interactive. You can sort, filter, and dig deeper. 😀

Also, the games table isn’t limited to just the current week, and the Super Bowl section goes beyond the top ten matchups. Want to see Week 14 lines or the 128th most likely Super Bowl? Go for it.